Project 2026: A Check with No Strings: Why Universal Basic Income Is the Cornerstone of a Progressive Economy

Universal Basic Income is a bold, proven solution to end poverty, eliminate the poor tax, and empower every American with economic dignity and freedom.

As with all Project 2026 writing and ideas, this is just a starting position. Nothing is fixed in concrete, but we must start making a plan. Project 2025 has been in progress for 50 years, and the GOP has been playing the long game. We need to have a plan in place. Opinions, ideas, and suggestions are all welcome.

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I. Introduction: Poverty Is a Policy Choice

In the richest country on Earth, nearly 38 million people live in poverty. That’s not a reflection of scarcity; it’s a reflection of failure. Not a failure of individuals, but of policy. America has built a sprawling, byzantine safety net riddled with loopholes, eligibility traps, and dignity-destroying gatekeeping systems that force people to prove, again and again, that they are poor enough to deserve help. This is not just inefficient; it’s morally bankrupt.

Universal Basic Income (UBI) offers a radical alternative rooted in simplicity, dignity, and trust. A monthly, unconditional cash payment, say $1,000, to every adult, regardless of employment status, won’t fix every injustice. But it will eradicate extreme poverty, dismantle the hidden taxes of being poor, and restore economic power to the people who’ve had it stolen by decades of austerity politics and neoliberal cruelty.

This is not a utopian fantasy. It is a practical, evidence-based solution with deep roots in American political thought and global trials to back it up.

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II. Historical Context: The Long Road to a Guaranteed Income

The idea of guaranteed income predates Silicon Valley techno-utopians and progressive politicians. It goes back to the Founding era:

• Thomas Paine (1797) proposed a "citizen dividend" funded by landowners as compensation for the loss of common land.

• Martin Luther King Jr. (1967), in Where Do We Go From Here?, called for a guaranteed income as a way to actualize economic justice: "The solution to poverty is to abolish it directly by a now widely discussed measure: the guaranteed income."

• Milton Friedman, a conservative economist, proposed a Negative Income Tax in the 1960s to simplify welfare and give people the power of cash over paternalistic benefits.

Even Richard Nixon nearly implemented a form of UBI after results from the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiment (SIME/DIME) and other U.S. pilots (New Jersey, Gary, Indiana, and North Carolina) showed promising outcomes: improved educational attainment, health outcomes, and stable employment levels. (NBER: The Negative Income Tax Experiments)

Globally, a wide range of pilots has strengthened the case:

• Finland (2017–2018): €560/month to 2,000 unemployed Finns. Result: improved well-being and mental health, reduced stress, and no decrease in employment. (Kela Report)

• Kenya (2016–ongoing): GiveDirectly’s long-term UBI trial. Result: greater food security, business creation, and psychological well-being. (GiveDirectly UBI Research)

• Canada – Ontario Pilot (2017–2019): $17,000 CAD/year to low-income individuals. Result: better health, education, job-seeking (ended early). (Ontario Basic Income Pilot Summary)

• India (2011–2013): SEWA & UNICEF pilot in 8 villages. Result: better nutrition, housing, education, and health. (SEWA-UNICEF Study)

• Namibia (2008–2009): $10/month per person in Otjivero. Result: lower malnutrition and crime, better school attendance. (BIG Coalition Report)

• Brazil – Maricá (ongoing): Local currency (Mumbuca) UBI. Result: community resilience, food security. (Instituto E-Dinheiro)

• Germany – Mein Grundeinkommen (2014–present): €1,000/month from crowdfunding. Result: improved well-being, self-directed learning. (Mein Grundeinkommen Research)

The evidence is clear: when people are given unconditional cash, they spend it wisely. They invest in themselves, their families, and their communities. Crucially, they keep working or even work more.

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III. The Poor Tax: How Scarcity Punishes the Most Vulnerable

Being poor is expensive.

Low-income Americans face what economists call a "poverty premium" or what advocates rightly call a "Poor Tax":

• Overdraft fees, check-cashing services, and payday loans

• Rent-to-own furniture costing three times the retail price

• Higher auto insurance premiums, simply due to zip code

• Per-ride transit fares, because they can’t afford a monthly pass

• Expensive prepaid cell plans, instead of cheaper contracts requiring credit

These costs compound over time. Worse, the psychology of scarcity—as explored by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir—demonstrates that scarcity itself consumes cognitive bandwidth. You make bad decisions not because you're irrational but trapped in a system that demands short-term survival.

UBI breaks this cycle. It’s not just cash; it’s cognitive relief.

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IV. Economic Modeling: What Would $1,000/Month Actually Do?

• Cost: $12,000/year × 260 million U.S. adults = $3.12 trillion/year

• Offset potential:

  • Wealth tax (0.5–2% on ultra-wealthy)

  • Carbon tax/dividend systems

  • Closure of tax loopholes, ending corporate subsidies

  • Replacing inefficient administrative programs

Expected Outcomes:

• Lifts 15–20 million people out of poverty

• Generates $2.5 trillion in GDP stimulus annually (conservative multiplier: 0.8x)

• Frees up tens of billions in administrative overhead

• Improves mental health, educational outcomes, and business creation

Real-World Examples:

• Stockton, CA: $500/month led to increased full-time work and reduced anxiety

• Kenya: Improved food security, local economic resilience

• Finland: Happier people, no drop in employment

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V. Universality vs. Means-Testing: Why Everyone Gets a Check

Critics love to say “just give it to the people who need it most.” But means-testing kills programs:

• Adds bureaucratic friction

• Introduces eligibility cliffs

• Forces people to prove their poverty

• Creates resentment and stigma

Meanwhile, universal programs like Social Security, Medicare, and the Alaska Permanent Fund survive—and thrive—because everyone has skin in the game.

Instead of trying to filter recipients at the front end, send the check to all and claw it back on the tax return.

It’s not just smarter. It’s cheaper. And it builds coalitions.

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VI. Scarcity, Freedom, and the Moral Case for Trust

UBI isn’t just an economic tool—it’s a moral framework.

• It says dignity is a right, not a reward for labor.

• It says we trust people to know how best to live their lives.

• It creates the freedom to walk away—from bad jobs, abusive partners, or burnout.

Economic freedom without financial security is a lie. UBI makes freedom real.

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VII. Strategic Policy Design: How We Get There

Phase 1: Infrastructure & Pilot Scaling

• Build national payment infrastructure through IRS or SSA

• Expand city/state-level GI programs with federal support

Phase 2: National Rollout

• Start with adults below median income; scale to universal in 5 years

• Index to inflation

• Pair with progressive taxes, wealth dividend, and climate revenues

Protection Against Retrenchment

• Universal framing (no means-testing)

• Constitutional or legislative entrenchment

• Tie to core values: liberty, freedom, and trust

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VIII. Final Words: Trust the People. Fund the Future.

Poverty is engineered. We can disassemble it—permanently.

We’ve tried work requirements. We’ve tried trickle-down lies. We’ve tried bureaucracy masquerading as benevolence.

Now, let’s try something radical in its simplicity: trust the people. Send the check.

Economic security is not a luxury; it’s the floor beneath democracy. And when we build that floor together, without exceptions, without conditions, we don’t just eliminate poverty.

We reclaim the future.

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*Recommended Reading

1. Utopia for Realists by Rutger Bregman

2. Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much by Sendhil Mullainathan & Eldar Shafir

3. Give People Money by Annie Lowrey

4. The War on Normal People by Andrew Yang

5. Where Do We Go from Here: Chaos or Community? by Martin Luther King Jr.

6. Roosevelt Institute reports on Guaranteed Income - free PDF download

7. Demos: UBI policy modeling and equity impact studies - linked in Section II

8. GiveDirectly.org research archive - linked in Section II

9. SEED (Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration) Final Report - linked in Section II

10. Kela.fi – Finland Basic Income Experiment Summary - linked in Section II

* Links provided are uncompensated; some books may only be available used.

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